# 1 Theoretical Literature Contends That Whether The Expectations Augmented Phillips C 3182711

1. Theoretical literature contends that whether the expectations-augmented Phillips curve fits the databetter. In doing this it assumes that next period’s expected inflation rate is given by the inflation rateobserved today (pt+1 = pt). In this exercise you are asked to investigate whether the fit improves if oneuses economic forecaster’s measures of inflation expectations.a. Go to http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 and click on “Consumer Price Index (CPI)” and then select“Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items.” Click on “Download Data” and change theunit to “Percent Change from Year Ago” to obtain inflation rates. You will have to take the averages inEXCEL to get annual rates. Work on the data between 1978 and 2018. Also download annualunemployment rate (µt) data for the same period on www.bls.gov/cps. Scroll down to “CPS Database”and click on “Top Picks” next to “Labor Force Statistics including the National Unemployment Rate.”Then, download “Unemployment Rate— LNS14000000.” You will have to take the averages in EXCEL toget annual rates.b. Now do a search for “University of Michigan Inflation Expectation.” (Transform the monthly data intoannual by using the option “Last Month of Year” or You will have to take the averages in EXCEL to getannual rates.) Copy the annual data into your EXCEL file.c. Compute the difference between inflation and expected inflation (pt-pe
t). In computing the differencebe careful about the dating of the variables. The University of Michigan inflation expectation variablesgives the expected inflation over the following year. For example, the 1978 observation is equal to 7.3.This means that inflation during 1979 is expected to be equal to 7.3 percent.d. Create a scatter plot that has the difference between inflation and expected inflation on the Y axisand the unemployment rate on the X axis. Visually compare the graph you obtained with Figure 6-6 inthe chapter. Which one looks more like a Phillips curve?* e. If you have taken a statistics class use EXCEL or a statistical program in order to run the followingregression:pt-pe
t=?+ßxµt+et
What is the implied slope of the Phillips curve? Is it statistically significant? Interpret your results.